Month: April 2015

Al Khan Has Eastern Promise

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Making a ‘confident’ selection in a handicap may be a little unwise but, in the Weddings at Western House Hotel Handicap (3.30) at Ayr on Monday, Al Khan looks to have had his enthusiasm rekindled by the switch to David O’Meara (as horses often do) and he looks capable of defying a 6lb penalty. The Elnadim gelding recorded a career-best effort when staying on to lead close home in a 0-90 contest, over 7 furlongs, at Catterick last Wednesday and a repeat performance would probably be good enough anyway.
However, the 6-year-old is entitled to improve for the Catterick run – his first for the yard and his first since September – so, dropping back to 0-85 company, he appears to have an outstanding chance, handicap or not. He’s done all his winning on good to firm or good going and has won over 7 furlongs on the straight course at Leicester, so the return to a galloping track shouldn’t cause him any problems, in terms of stamina.
The North Yorkshire trainer has a respectable 13-60 (22%) strike rate with his older horses at Ayr over the last five seasons so, all in all, Al Khan has plenty going for him. At 3/1 in the early price lists, he looks decent value to complete a quick-fire double.
Selection: Ayr 3.30 Al Khan to win  Tipster: David

Velator Can Show True Colours

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In the Cheltenham Club Handicap Chase (2.40) on Wednesday, Velator has yet to win beyond 3 miles 2½ furlongs, but the way in which he’s been staying on at the end of his recent races suggests an extra quarter of a mile is within his compass, especially on the prevailing good going. The Old Vic gelding remains 8lb higher in the weights than when winning at Newton Abbott in September, but has shown his best form over fences on properly ‘good’ going, so faster underfoot conditions could make the difference this time.

Of course, he also has the services of highly talented conditional jockey Sean Bowen, who takes off a useful 3lb. Bowen Jnr. has certainly been in fine form of late, winning on nine of his last seventeen mounts, including the last four in a row for his father, Peter, and looks to have bright prospects of keeping up the good work. At 8/1 in the early price lists, Velator looks decent value to receive his just deserts after running creditably in defeat on his last three starts.
Selection: Cheltenham 2.40 Velator to win                           Tipster: David

Leaders’ Debate Novelty Bets

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The general election is just around the corner now and it’s hard to turn on the TV without one party or another telling you that voting for the other guy is tantamount to giving a thumbs up to the apocalypse. It can all get a bit nauseating regardless of which political party you support, so the prospect of a debate featuring all of the leaders will alternate between a nightmare and a snoozefest for some. It’s no surprise then that aside from the more serious ‘Who won the debate?‘ (UKIP’s Nigel Farage 7/4, Conservative David Cameron 7/2, Labour’s Ed Miliband 4/1, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon 9/1, Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 12/1) markets there are a whole host of novelty style bets available.

Coral offer odds for ‘All Men To Wear Party Coloured Ties‘ and there’s a rather humorous ‘Worst Performance‘ betting market offered by various bookmakers. Green party leader Natalie Bennett is favourite for that following her car crash LBC interview. The bets most fitting of the ‘novelty bet’ tag are the bingo style ‘To say first‘ and ‘to say at any time‘ markets. Paddy Power is the only bookmaker offering the ‘To say first‘ bets, but I’d leave those well alone as for a phase to be said at all isn’t a given let alone by a specific party leader out of seven.

The ‘To say at any time‘ market looks to be much more interesting though. The debate is two hours long. That’s an often lot of time for individual phrases to be uttered by someone. While there are silly phrases such as “Zayn Malik” at 25/1, odds of 11/10 that someone will say the phrase “hard working families” seems pretty decent to me.

Selection: “Hard working families” to be mentioned during debate 11/10  Tipster: GC