GC

Velator Can Show True Colours

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In the Cheltenham Club Handicap Chase (2.40) on Wednesday, Velator has yet to win beyond 3 miles 2½ furlongs, but the way in which he’s been staying on at the end of his recent races suggests an extra quarter of a mile is within his compass, especially on the prevailing good going. The Old Vic gelding remains 8lb higher in the weights than when winning at Newton Abbott in September, but has shown his best form over fences on properly ‘good’ going, so faster underfoot conditions could make the difference this time.

Of course, he also has the services of highly talented conditional jockey Sean Bowen, who takes off a useful 3lb. Bowen Jnr. has certainly been in fine form of late, winning on nine of his last seventeen mounts, including the last four in a row for his father, Peter, and looks to have bright prospects of keeping up the good work. At 8/1 in the early price lists, Velator looks decent value to receive his just deserts after running creditably in defeat on his last three starts.
Selection: Cheltenham 2.40 Velator to win                           Tipster: David

Leaders’ Debate Novelty Bets

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The general election is just around the corner now and it’s hard to turn on the TV without one party or another telling you that voting for the other guy is tantamount to giving a thumbs up to the apocalypse. It can all get a bit nauseating regardless of which political party you support, so the prospect of a debate featuring all of the leaders will alternate between a nightmare and a snoozefest for some. It’s no surprise then that aside from the more serious ‘Who won the debate?‘ (UKIP’s Nigel Farage 7/4, Conservative David Cameron 7/2, Labour’s Ed Miliband 4/1, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon 9/1, Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg 12/1) markets there are a whole host of novelty style bets available.

Coral offer odds for ‘All Men To Wear Party Coloured Ties‘ and there’s a rather humorous ‘Worst Performance‘ betting market offered by various bookmakers. Green party leader Natalie Bennett is favourite for that following her car crash LBC interview. The bets most fitting of the ‘novelty bet’ tag are the bingo style ‘To say first‘ and ‘to say at any time‘ markets. Paddy Power is the only bookmaker offering the ‘To say first‘ bets, but I’d leave those well alone as for a phase to be said at all isn’t a given let alone by a specific party leader out of seven.

The ‘To say at any time‘ market looks to be much more interesting though. The debate is two hours long. That’s an often lot of time for individual phrases to be uttered by someone. While there are silly phrases such as “Zayn Malik” at 25/1, odds of 11/10 that someone will say the phrase “hard working families” seems pretty decent to me.

Selection: “Hard working families” to be mentioned during debate 11/10  Tipster: GC

Italy vs England

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It’s hard to get too excited about the England team playing nowadays, as any short term excitement always seems to end with a big letdown. Granted they easily dispatched of Lithuania (4-0) at Wembley but in terms of ability on a football pitch they’re hardly up there with the best. Still, at least with Tuesday’s Italy vs England match held at Juventus Stadium, Turin, we’re up against a world class team, so it should prove much more of a test even though it is a Friendly.

England’s record against Italy isn’t great, four losses (albeit mostly narrow) and one win since 2000. They are typically low scoring affairs too, on account of Italy’s defensive style of play. That being said, there are some reasons for optimism though, or at least interest. Harry Kane, who scored 79 seconds after coming on in the Lithuania game, is set to make his full international debut against Italy. He’s being built up to be the next big thing more by the day so we’ll soon get to see if he can live up to the hype while wearing an England shirt.

Odds wise, the teams are really evenly matched in this game with Italy currently at 7/5, England 21/10 and the draw 21/10. I’m not seeing a lot of value there really. If I really wanted to bet on the result, I’d maybe be more tempted to go for the half-time – full-time result bet of Draw/Italy at 9/2, on the basis that these encounters are typically low on goals and just edged out at some point during the game. If you’re looking for a bit more excitement though and tend to bet patriotically in England Internationals, why not plump for the dream debut of Harry Kane to be the first goal scorer at 7-1. Enjoy the match!

Selections:  HT-FT Draw/Italy at 9/2  or Harry Kane to be first goal scorer at 7-1   Tipster: GC

Huntingdon 2:10 – Southfield Looks Another For McCoy

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A.P. McCoy already has a healthy 6-15 (40%) strike rate over hurdles for Neil Mulholland and there are good reasons for believing that he can improve that record on Southfield Royale in the Shoreclean Ventilation Ductwork Cleaning “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle (2.10) at Huntingdon on Tuesday. The Presenting gelding weakened before the third last when tailed off over 2 miles 7½ furlongs at Exeter in February, but is probably better judged on his earlier form at, or around, 2 miles 4 furlongs.

 

 

He won on his debut over hurdles, under A.P. McCoy, at Fontwell in November and although no match for impressive winner War Sound at Exeter on New Year’s Day, still pulled 26 lengths of the third horse on that occasion. His subsequent second, beaten 2¼ lengths, behind Oscar Sunset in a 0-135 handicap hurdle at Taunton was another decent effort in the context of this race and he can resume winning ways.

 

 

His sole win over obstacles came on heavy going, but he comfortably won a ‘bumper’ at on good going on his racecourse debut at Market Rasen last June, so he should run his race regardless of whether or not the forecast rain affects underfoot conditions. Neil Mulholland has 4-25 (16%) overall strike rate at Huntingdon over the last five seasons, but A.P. McCoy is far and away the leading jockey at the Cambridgeshire track in that period, with a strike rate of 38-111 (34%), so the statistics are favourable.

Huntingdon 2.10 Southfield Royale to win       Tipster: David D